The congressional primaries determine the general direction in America

In the past, party primaries in the United States rarely received much attention, and internal political contests tended to be so boring that only about one in five eligible voters bothered to cast a ballot.

With the first election of 2026 less than two weeks away, this season’s primaries are shaping up to be noisy and crowded, reflecting tensions in both the Republican and Democratic parties.

It’s a situation unlike any other in recent memory, and so far, nine senators and more than 50 House members, a 21st-century record, are retiring or running for higher office, opening opportunities for many challengers across the country.

Add to this the high stakes with control of both chambers of Congress, bad mood among voters, and the possibility that the president’s party will suffer losses, as they always do in midterm elections, and professional politicians are drawn into the arena, as are attractive newcomers of all stripes.

Such an environment “makes a lot of people think about running,” said Nathan Gonzalez, director of the nonpartisan analysis site Inside Election, adding: “They think: Why not me?”

Simple progress

The “Democrats” will need a slight advance to win control of the House of Representatives, as their number of seats is four fewer than the “Republicans”, with three vacant seats. As for regaining control of the Senate, it is a more difficult task, as they will have to win four seats, and this year’s map indicates that they will mostly play the role of defending the seats they occupy.

This year’s elections will be close. Given the number of districts and states that lie safely in the hands of one party, the vast majority of congressional races will effectively end when the winner is crowned in the primaries.

The Cook Political Report classifies only 18 of 435 House races and four of 35 Senate seats this year as truly close races in November 2026.

For his part, Nick Troiano, executive director of the nonpartisan Unite America, which seeks to break the two-party control of elections through open primaries, said: “More than ever, the primaries will determine the shape and features of the next Congress,” adding: “In order for the people’s voices to be heard, the primaries are everything.”

Small slide

According to a new analysis of 2024 voter data by Unite America Research, the small segment of voters who typically vote in primaries does not exactly represent the electorate overall.

While most general election voters consider themselves independent and moderate, those who vote in primaries are more ideological and partisan, as well as older, wealthier, and mostly white.

But the number of hot races this year may give more voters a reason to vote in them.

An example of this is the recent “Democratic” primary elections in which 11 candidates participated in the 11th congressional district in New Jersey, which was a special election to fill a seat in the House of Representatives held by the new governor of the state, Mickey Sherrill. Candidates from across the party spectrum participated in these elections, attracted millions of dollars in outside spending, and resulted in a very narrow victory for the progressive politician Analilia Mejia.

a test

As the primary season progresses, it will become clear whether Democrats in general lean left or move toward the center, and vote emotionally or realistically. The multiple Republican primaries will test the candidates, among other things, and whether support for President Donald Trump is still a “magic weapon,” or whether GOP voters have become more wary of his agenda. About the Washington Post

• Voters who vote in primaries are older, more ideological, more partisan, wealthier, and mostly white.

• The “Republican” primaries will be a test for the candidates regarding Trump’s agenda.