Meloni’s defeat in the “judicial reform referendum” is a test for the unification of the Italian opposition

The defeat suffered by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in the referendum on judicial reform sent a rare indication of the possibility of breaking her political hegemony. However, the most prominent question currently is the extent to which the Italian opposition, which suffers from fragmentation and division, is able to capitalize on this transformation by uniting its ranks against Meloni, who is known for her extreme right-wing tendencies.

Since Meloni came to power in 2022, she has seemed like a political force that is difficult to challenge, taking advantage of the weakness and disunity of her opponents, but her loss in the last referendum revealed a rising wave of popular discontent, which her rivals are now seeking to exploit politically. The turnout in this election was high, with a notable turnout from young voters who voted against the Prime Minister’s policies.

This popular rejection opens an important window for the most prominent opposition forces, led by the Democratic Party, led by Elie Schlein, and the Five Star Movement, led by former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.

Schlein described the results of the referendum as “an exceptional victory for the people,” considering that it represents the beginning of the decline of the nationalist right.

Despite these positive indicators for the opposition, translating this momentum into victory in the next general elections – which may be held next year or even earlier – requires unifying the opposition forces under one front. However, this goal seems difficult to achieve, in light of the deep differences between its components, especially on issues such as military support for Ukraine and economic policies.

Relative stability

Opinion polls indicated relative stability in the balance of political power since mid-2024, with the “Brothers of Italy” party, led by Meloni, maintaining the lead with approximately 29%, followed by the Democratic Party with 22%, then the “Five Star Movement” with about 12%, which reflects that any real opportunity to compete with the right requires actual coordination between these forces.

In this context, calls are increasing within the opposition to hold primary elections to choose a unified leader and formulate a joint program.

Both Conte and Schlein expressed their support for this idea, with Conte confirming that the Italians are demanding this step, while Schlein expressed her willingness to take on this challenge.

Fundamental differences

The anti-judicial reform campaign put forward by Meloni succeeded in temporarily uniting the opposition, as it formed a common platform for criticizing government policies, especially with regard to independent state institutions. This unity was embodied in a massive gathering in Piazza Barberini in Rome, where opposition leaders and activists celebrated a result that was unexpected a few weeks ago.

But this unified scene hides fundamental differences, as this coalition is still unable to agree on a unified national program or a common candidate for prime minister. Differences clearly emerge over files such as military spending, support for Ukraine, and economic policies, in light of a clear gap between the radical leftist movements and the more moderate Democratic Party.

In an attempt to overcome this discrepancy, Schlein stressed the need for the opposition to provide practical solutions, not just oppose the government. A set of proposals were put forward, including setting a minimum wage, reducing working hours, and enhancing shared parental and maternity leave.

She also pointed to previous successes of progressive alliances at the local and regional levels, considering them evidence of the possibility of achieving similar victories at the national level.

For his part, the leader of the Italian Left Party, Nicola Fratoianni, confirmed the existence of common ground between the opposition parties on issues such as health care and environmental transformation, while noting the continuing differences over the war in Ukraine.

Choose a leader

Although the opposition was united in the referendum, it currently faces a more complex challenge of choosing a unified leader, as there is still no clear consensus on a specific personality.

Schlein is considered the strongest candidate by virtue of her leadership of the largest opposition party, but she faces criticism related to her background and the view of some of her as an elitist figure.

On the other hand, Conte enjoys wide popularity, especially in the south of the country, and has previous experience in government, as he supervised social support programs and obtained huge European aid during the “Corona” pandemic.

However, neither of them has yet been able to impose himself as a unifying leader for all sectors of the opposition. Other names have also been put forward as consensus candidates, such as former athlete Silvia Salles and academic Gaetano Manfredi, but they refused to run in the primaries.

Clear gap

Analysts warned against exaggerating the interpretation of the results of the referendum as a radical shift in the political mood, as the analyst, Lorenzo Brigliasco, points out that a large percentage of the “no” voters do not necessarily belong to the center-left camp, but rather include voters who are not politically engaged, or have low electoral participation.

He confirms that there is a clear gap between popular discontent with the government and actual support for the opposition, which means that the latter cannot assume that it has automatically won this rule.

Some analysts believe that the timing of the upcoming elections may be a decisive factor, as Meloni can call for early elections before the economic conditions deteriorate, taking advantage of the cohesion of her camp, compared to the division of her opponents. In return, she may prefer to remain in power for a longer period to strengthen her political position.

As for the opposition leaders, they confirm their readiness to run in the elections at any time, as Shlein stressed that the preparation is in place regardless of the date, in an attempt to show confidence and readiness to face the upcoming challenges.

About “Politico”

. Unifying the opposition seems a difficult goal in light of the differences between its components, especially on issues such as military support for Ukraine and economic policies.