A detailed moment in the history of Syria: reconstruction and reconciliation, or chaos

The report prepared the United Nations Economic and Social Committee for the Western Asia (ESCWA)* in cooperation with the United Nations Trade and Development Conference (UNCTAD) under the title “Syria at a crossroads: Towards a stable transitional stage“.

According to a press release issued by ESCWA, the report reveals the country’s decrease in the country’s 64% since the conflict began in 2011. The Syrian pound has lost about two -thirds of its value during 2023 alone, which raised the rate of consumer inflation to 40% in 2024.

As for exports that were previously an essential engine for the economy, they are now largely limited to basic commodities such as food, while trade in industrial goods has witnessed a significant decline.

The Executive Secretary of the Eskwa Rola Dashti said: “Syria has been suffering from an extended crisis for nearly fifteen years, and every aspect of life has eroded. Our report emphasizes the urgent need to rebuild the country, not only at the infrastructure level, but also by enhancing confidence, governance and social cohesion.

Humanitarian catastrophe

In addition to the economic collapse, the humanitarian situation in Syria remains catastrophic. About 16.7 million people – more than two -thirds of the country’s population – need a form of humanitarian assistance. There are seven million displaced people internally, while chronic malnutrition rates continue to rise.

The report ranked Syria 158 out of 160 countries in the ESCWA for development challenges in the world for the year 2024, pointing to problems rooted in governance, environmental degradation, and widespread spread of poverty.

Dashti said: “This is one of the longest humanitarian crises in the world, and the results clearly indicate that it can be aggravated if there are no urgent steps. Syria’s recovery is not limited to the reconstruction of cities, but requires investment in people, restore confidence in institutions, and create conditions that enable families to restore their normal life “.

Recovery paths

Despite the dark image, the report presents a recovery scenario Giving priority to reconstruction, implementing governance reforms, and securing sufficient international aid. Under these circumstances, Syria’s gross domestic product can grow at a rate of 13% annually between 2024 and 2030.

However, this growth will only raise the country’s gross product to 80% of its level before the war by the end of the contract, while the per capita GDP will reach half of the 2010 level.

According to United Nations experts, the restoration of the full pre -war gross domestic product will require an additional six years of fixed growth of 5%, which pushes the time frame until 2036.

Bandy alternatives

The report does not avoid taking the scenarios in which the prospects for Syria remain dark. Continuing instability, weak governance, and insufficient financing, all factors that can lead to permanent economic stagnation and continuous poverty.

In the event that the country takes a worse path characterized by new waves of conflict and the exacerbation of divisions, the gross domestic product may decrease by 7.68% annually between 2024 and 2030, which may exacerbate the humanitarian crisis and regional security challenges.

The report also highlights the impact of the situation in Syria on neighboring countries. The stability of Syria can reflect positively on countries such as Jordan and LebanonWith the reopening of the borders and the restoration of trade routes, which may lead to an increase in the common GDP of these countries. However, the continued turmoil in Syria threatens to exacerbate illegal trade, increase pressure on resources allocated to refugees, and undermine regional stability in general.

The report calls for Comprehensive reforms in governance, enhancing the role of the private sector, and providing international aid that exceeds emergency relief To include systematic support for a comprehensive and sustainable economic revival. It also emphasizes the need to rehabilitate infrastructure, developing agriculture, industry, and finance sectors, within the framework of comprehensive policies aimed at reducing the possibility of renewed disputes.

Reconstruction of confidence and peace

Among the main recommendations, the report calls for rebuilding confidence in Syrian institutions by enhancing reconciliation efforts, adopting accountability measures, and implementing reforms in the security sector, steps that the authors of the report considers necessary to achieve permanent peace. The report also stresses the importance of regional and international support, including purposeful mitigation of sanctions and the promotion of joint economic efforts.

In conclusion, Dashti considered that “This is a detailed moment in the history of Syria. Either it takes the path of reconstruction and reconciliation, or facing the risk of drowning in a deeper chaos. The bets that mean Syria and the entire region cannot be greater than it is now.”

*ESCWA is one of the five regional committees of the United Nations, working to support comprehensive and sustainable economic and social development in Arab countries, and to enhance regional integration.