The “customs duties” crisis is still a shadow of relations between Washington and Beijing

Chinese analysts praised the sudden truce in the crisis of the rising customs duties between the United States and China, last week, and described it as success for the country, but Beijing is preparing for a “rugged” path in relations and negotiations with Washington.

Indeed, in the days after the May 12 agreement, between American and Chinese negotiators in Geneva, Beijing launched a scathing attack on Washington. Last Monday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce accused the United States of “undermining” the Geneva talks, after the administration of US President Donald Trump warned companies against using artificial intelligence chips made by Huawei, the Chinese technology giant.

Two days later, Washington “is taking advantage of export controls to suppress and contain China”, referring again to Trump’s instructions on artificial intelligence chips.

Strict

Beijing also clung to its position on “Fintanel”, describing this scourge as “the problem of the United States, not the problem of China”, although more cooperation with Washington to reduce the production of chemicals that can be used to make this drug, may help Beijing to reduce the remaining American customs duties on its goods.

China’s hardline speech is sent a clear signal before the expected negotiations. Although Beijing faces great economic pressure due to commercial frictions, it is not in a mood to make quick concessions at the expense of its image or interests.

This also indicates that despite the temporary calm, the “rooted” strategic competition between the United States and China will cast a heavy shadow over these talks. Washington views everything China says as a threat, and moves to tighten controls on China’s access to American technology and investments, while strengthening its Asian alliances, measures that Beijing considers “containing”.

Trade negotiations began to rang the alarm, as the truce agreed by US and Chinese officials earlier this month lasts only 90 days. Under this agreement, the two sides agreed to reduce customs duties by 115 percentage points, which were considered an actual commercial ban between two very integrated economies, which led to the stopping of assembly lines, the low pace of ports activities, and companies stumbled on both sides on how to adapt.

No other commercial talks between the United States and China were announced, although the American commercial representative, Jameson Jarir, and the Chinese commercial envoy, Lee Cheng Gang, met on the sidelines of the meeting of the Prime Minister of the Economic Cooperation Forum for the Asia and the Pacific (APIC) in South Korea, last week.

On Friday, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the deputy minister, what Zhao Xui, spoke with the US Deputy Foreign Minister for Administration and Resources, Richard Verma, about China -American relations.

Special procedures

The Chinese Broadcasting and Television Corporation said on May 14, when the discounts came into effect, saying: “Reviving trade relations between the United States and China is beneficial to the two sides and the global economy,” taking a more humble tone than the tone of experts such as Hu Shi Jin, the former editor of a national popular newspaper linked to the state, which described the result as a “great victory” for China.

However, the Chinese Radio and Television Authority added that the United States must “completely correct its mistake” in “fabricating excuses to impose uninterrupted customs duties, and we welcome the start of the dialogue, but hegemony must end.”

When Trump declared the so -called customs duties on his commercial partners around the world, last month, China took a different approach from most countries, and rushed to respond to its own procedures.

It did not retreat even when the US president at the time stopped most of the customs duties on other countries, but he raised them on China, as Beijing filmed itself as a global leader who tackled the arrogant people whose mutual customs duties increased.

Chinese leaders are now likely to feel reassuring because their strategy is on the “right path”, according to the geopolitical strategic expert, assistant professor at Hong Kong University, Brian Wong.

Despite her strict statements, observers believe that Beijing is probably ready to make some concessions. This may include a return to a commercial agreement reached during the “Trump’s First Trade War” that was not fully implemented, or expanded, to buy more American commodities, and cooperation with law enforcement or tightening controls may be the production of initial chemicals used to make “fentanel” another concession.

But the question before Beijing is how it turns this into a permanent victory for its economy and its speech, despite the lack of deep mutual confidence, the increasing competition between the United States and China in technology, military power and global influence, as well as a president known for his bold policies? “There is absolutely no illusion among the major decision -makers (in China) about alleviating Chinese -American tensions,” Wong said.

It appears that the risks are large for China to ensure that customs recognition are reduced to the largest export market, and not to increase them again. If the current reduced customs duties continue as they are, the trade activity between the United States and China may decrease to half, which reduces China’s growth by 1.6%, and leads to a loss between four and six million jobs, according to the largest economists in the Asia Pacific region at Natxis Investment Bank, Alicia Garcia Hero.

The Trump administration has not yet determined a clear set of demands for negotiations with China, but Trump has always criticized the US trade deficit of about $ 300 billion with China, and blamed the country for the transfer of American jobs abroad and the decline in American manufacturing.

“The Chinese are ready to make deals, in order to bypass the Trump storm,” said the director of China at the Stimson Research Center in Washington, adding: “If there is a way they can reduce the cost and stabilize bilateral relations, this is a favorite, but they want the United States to be a process and its demands are reasonable.”

There are clear points of disagreement, and Beijing is likely to want to work to bridge the commercial gap by buying advanced American technology, many of which are now prohibited from being sold there.

Chinese officials may also warn against widespread negotiation with the Trump team and made concessions related to opening their economic system, which has always been called by Western countries. But Beijing also has its own influence, as it appears to continue to impose strict control of its rare mineral exports that are vital to auto, space industries, and American military industries.

Observers believe that China is more able to bear economic suffering from the United States. This is partly due to the fact that Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the strong man at the head of the Communist Party’s system, is not subject to negative popular reactions on the economic crisis and the collapse of stock prices such as Trump.

“Although the effects of customs duties on the Chinese economy will become more severe, Beijing believes it is able to bear the trade war longer than the United States,” wrote former Chinese diplomat, Chu Xiao Ming, in an electronic analysis published earlier this month before the Geneva talks.

The deadline ends

The negotiation path by August 12, at the end of the 90 -day deadline, will have a significant impact on the broader path of relations between the competing global powers, but in the meantime Beijing continues to prepare for a long -term fitness with the United States.

Commercial tensions added to the urgent efforts of China to enhance local consumption and expand other export markets, as the government is looking for ways to compensate for the possible loss of American customers.

Jinping and his officials launched a wave of diplomacy, targeting Latin America partners to Europe and Southeast Asia, China photographers as an official partner, and offered to enhance cooperation or expand free trade.

Beijing has done well in this regard, according to the director of the American -American Cooperation Center at the Joseph Corble College of International Studies in Denver, Suching Zhao, who stressed that “if Trump continues this (global) customs war, this will give China a great strategic advantage.”

He added that this is important to Beijing, because regardless of what will happen in the next 90 days, the broader competition between the United States and China means that both hope that it will become less dependent on the other. He said: “It does not matter what they are talking about (in negotiations) … It is preferable (each of them) to reduce his trade with the other, this is the direction.” About CNN

. Washington is looking at everything China says as a threat, and moves to tighten controls on Beijing’s access to American technology and investments.

. Beijing is preparing for a “rugged” path in relations and negotiations with Washington.