Genocide Prevention Advisor: The risk of atrocity crimes is increasing in light of a worrying decline in respect for international law

In his first interview since taking office in August, Chaluka Bayani recalled the origins of his mandate, created by the UN Security Council in the wake of the Rwandan and Srebrenica genocides, and drew troubling comparisons with the crises unfolding today.

Bayani told UN News: “We are witnessing gross violations of international human rights law, direct attacks on civilians, and flagrant non-compliance with international humanitarian law. The risk of atrocities occurring, and indeed occurring, is extremely high.”.

He cited the worsening violence in Sudan as one of the most pressing examples. He said the Darfur conflict, which a UN commission first investigated in the 1990s, continues to escalate decades later, adding: “Nothing has changed. The fall of the civilian government only exacerbated the crisis.”.

Early warning system

The Office of Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect functions as an early warning system within the United Nations. It alerts the Secretary-General, the Security Council and the wider UN system – in accordance with this arrangement – when the risk of atrocity crimes, including genocide, is detected.

Based on 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide and legal opinions on court cases related to genocide, the Office monitors and analyzes 14 factors, ranging from armed conflicts involving ethnic or religious groups, hate speech, and the breakdown of the rule of law, among other factors.

When these risks show a violent pattern, the Special Adviser issues warnings, coordinates responses with UN officials, and maintains close relationships with regional organizations such as the African Union and the European Union, and other international mechanisms.

Bayani said: “Once our office sounds the alarm, it signals that the threshold is about to be crossed.”. He confirmed that “Our role is not to define genocide, but to prevent it.”He stressed that his office is referring the matter to international courts to determine whether a crime has been committed.

Protecting the vulnerable

The UN Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide also stressed the importance of the role of courts and justice in protecting vulnerable groups. And he said: “What must be done in the context of dealing with atrocities is to make participants in conflicts aware that they are being watched and monitored.”.

An example of this is the 2012 ICC conviction of Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga for child recruitment. This prompted other warlords to publicly denounce child recruitment.

My statement also referred to the interim measures issued by the International Court of Justice in the case of South Africa v. Israel relating to the application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip.

He added that, among other issues, the International Court of Justice will next year consider the full case brought by Gambia against Myanmar, which also concerns the application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. The special advisor said: “Prevention includes accountability.”.

Emerging threats

Among the emerging threats monitored by the Office of Special Counsel are misinformation and hate speech. His office works with technology companies such as Meta (Facebook) and Google to address online incitement, and with religious and community leaders to confront hate speech at the local level.

Environmental degradation and climate change have become drivers of conflict. Bayani said the Security Council was right to consider environmental degradation a security risk, as it did during a discussion on November 6.

He added: “We are seeing resource-based tensions, from the Sahel to small island states at risk of drowning. Climate change in itself is not a cause, but it exacerbates other risk factors.”.

The Special Adviser noted that indigenous communities, often targeted in disputes over land and natural resources, are among the groups most in need of protection.

And he said: “The extraction industries and deliberate actions against them place them at enormous risk. Their identity and lifestyle make them particularly vulnerable.”.

“Remembering alone is not enough.”

Despite the sensitivity of his mandate, the Special Adviser remains focused on diplomacy and prevention rather than public condemnation. He said in this regard: “This office is designed to operate quietly, advise the Secretary-General and the Security Council, and make public statements when necessary.”. He added that countries see this as a threat in some aspects. The Special Adviser emphasized that prevention requires remembering as much as action.

And he said: “Commemorating past genocides reminds us of the founding promise of the United Nations: that these crimes will never be repeated, and of the foundation on which the Genocide Convention is based.”.

He pointed out International Day to Commemorate and Honor the Victims of Genocide and the Prevention of this Crime on December 9, adding that “Remembering alone is not enough. We must strengthen our tools, build confidence, and act early.”.

What is genocide?

Genocide in English is genocide, which is derived from the Greek language where the prefix “genos” means a people, race, or tribe, and the suffix “lord” means to kill.

According to the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, genocide means any of the following acts, committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

(a) Killing members of the group.

(b) Causing serious physical or mental harm to members of the group.

(c) Intentionally subjecting the group to living conditions intended to cause its physical destruction, in whole or in part.

(d) Imposing measures aimed at preventing the birth of children within the group.

(e) Forcibly transferring children from the group to another group.