المملكة: The winter of 2025 is warm… “Meteorology” expects very heavy rain in 6 regions

Center detection The National Bureau of Meteorology announced its climate forecasts for the last quarter of 2025, indicating the possibility that most regions of the Kingdom will witness warmer weather than usual, with a chance of rainfall classified as “heavy to very heavy” during the months of November and December over large parts of the country.

And based on the outputs of models Long-term climate forecasts The report expects that the average surface temperature will rise above normal in most parts of the Kingdom during the period from October to December.

This rise will reach about 1.5 degrees Celsius in parts of the Tabuk and Medina regions, while temperatures are expected to be around their normal levels in parts of the Asir, Najran, and Makkah regions. And Riyadh.

With regard to rainfall, the last quarter of the year begins in October, which is expected to witness rainfall around the normal rate in most regions. However, expectations indicate a noticeable change in the month of November, as rain is likely to be less than normal in most regions, with the exception of the Jazan region and parts of the Asir, Najran, Riyadh, and Sharqiya regions, which may witness rainfall around rates described as heavy to very heavy.

The chance of heavy rains continues in December, as probable forecasts indicate rainfall higher than normal in parts of the regions of Makkah Al-Mukarramah, Medina, Al-Qassim, Hail, Riyadh, Al-Sharqiyah, Al-Jawf, and the northern borders. The report indicated that these rain events may begin in the second half of November.

In its report, the Center stressed the necessity of continuous monitoring of the short-term forecasts and early warnings it issues, given the possibility of unusual rain events that may not appear accurately in long-term climate models.

These forecasts come in the context of a comprehensive analysis based on reference climate data extending from 1991 to 2020, in addition to studying climate indicators. Influential global phenomena, such as the El Nino phenomenon and the Indian Ocean Dipole Index.