Mexico has become a less dangerous place under President Claudia Sheinbaum

Posters declaring that “Harfouche is wanted” still adorn car windows in Mexico City. This slogan dates back to Omar García Harfouche’s run for mayor in 2023. During his four-year stint as the city’s security chief, under the leadership of then-mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, the homicide rate fell by about 40%, one of the largest declines in the country, which made him very popular.

Harfouche won the nomination of the National Renewal Movement (Morena) by an overwhelming majority, then stepped aside in favor of the female candidate who came in second place, so that the party could meet the quota for women.

Instead, Harfouche joined Sheinbaum at the presidential palace, during October 2024, as Minister of Security, to apply his intelligence-based approach to combating drug cartels in Mexico on a national scale, which many Mexicans believe is their best hope for stopping the violence that has ravaged their country for years.

Preliminary evidence suggests this is true: according to Sheinbaum’s government, Mexico’s homicide rate fell by 32% in the year after Sheinbaum took office.

Wider view

However, an independent analysis conducted by The Economist magazine showed that the rate had actually decreased, but by 14%, indicating that in counting murders alone an important part of the picture was overlooked, which is that thousands of people disappear in Mexico every year, and many of them are killed and buried in unknown graves.

A broader look at homicides – which include manslaughter, femicide and two-thirds of disappearances – shows a more modest decline of 6%, according to the analysis.

Yet Mexico is on track to record about 24.3,000 murders this year, a shockingly high figure, but far below the recent annual average of just over 30,000.

Root cause

Sheinbaum is the first Mexican president in years to push the fight against crime in the right direction, but there is a question about how she and Harfouche will be able to achieve this.

Although the Mexican president has maintained the rhetoric of her predecessor and mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, about tackling poverty as the root cause of crime and violence, her policy has taken a different tack, starting with her security team.

Harfouche’s team clearly relies on data, as Sheinbaum has given him new and broad powers in the field of coordination and intelligence, and his allies have been appointed to leadership positions in key institutions, including the Financial Intelligence Unit that tracks what is known as “dirty money.”

Mexicans do not doubt the Minister of Security’s commitment to the cause, as Harfouche survived an assassination attempt in 2020, in which gunmen fired more than 400 bullets at his convoy, killing two of his bodyguards.

Arrests have reached record levels, and as security analyst Eduardo Guerrero notes, they have become “smarter,” with Harfouche targeting the most violent gangs, rather than leaders, as well as targeting those involved in money laundering, and the number of firearms seized has doubled.

hope

Zacatecas, once the most violent state in Mexico, offers a hopeful story of what can be achieved, with state and federal governments sharing responsibility for public safety. But the homicide rate has declined in Zacatecas since the gang war over migrant and drug smuggling routes peaked in 2021, and over the past year that rate has fallen more steeply than in any other state.

Zacatecas purged the security services of corrupt officers, recruited new officers from other parts of Mexico less fearful of gangs coming after their families, created two special forces units and imposed unified command over its most violent municipalities, thereby increasing confidence in the security forces.

Undersecretary of the State Department of Security, Genis Jaime Ruiz Garcia, says that citizens have begun to report crimes again, while the Secretary General of the State Government, Rodrigo Reyes, confirms that federal assistance and closer intelligence sharing under Harfouche were crucial.

Internal war

But going to Sinaloa, in the state of Culiacán, we clearly see the limits of this approach. An internal war has been raging within the Sinaloa drug cartel since late 2024, and more than 11,000 federal soldiers stationed across the state have been unable to stop the violence, and the homicide rate has tripled since the conflict began.

Even with armored convoys and night-vision-equipped drones, all Sinaloa’s security forces can do is secure roads and key infrastructure. They have failed to wrest control of the state from the gangs.

The state of Sinaloa demonstrates the enormous obstacles that Sheinbaum inherited; The criminal group that controls the state is sprawling and well-established, and the Jalisco drug cartel is well-established nationally. According to Guerrero, nearly two-thirds of murders in Mexico are linked to organized crime, and extortion is on the rise, while criminal groups are spreading in states such as Michoacán and Guerrero, Mexico.

About “The Economist”

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Improve security

Last week, the government of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum revealed plans to combat organized crime and improve security in the violence-plagued state of Michoacan, after the assassination of a local mayor shocked the country.

Officials said, in a press conference, that more than 10,000 members of the army, air force, and National Guard are participating in the operation, which was called the “Michoacán Plan for Peace and Justice,” to eliminate criminal groups, combat extortion, and dismantle drug laboratories and training camps. Sheinbaum said that the plan includes investments worth $3.1 billion.

The state of Michoacán witnessed new waves of violence after the mayor of the city of Uruapan, Carlos Manzo, was shot dead during “Day of the Dead” celebrations on the first of November.

Manzo has been a prominent critic of the federal government for its inaction in confronting organized crime.

Officials confirmed that they will strengthen the state police and its prosecutor’s office, and the plan also includes increasing resources for social welfare, agriculture, infrastructure, tourism and employment.

The Mexican President said: “We are making a special effort for the people of Michoacan,” stressing that she will personally follow up on the progress of the plan every 15 days, and will submit periodic reports to public opinion.

. Mexico’s Security Minister is adopting an intelligence-based approach to combating drug cartels in the country.

. Mexico’s homicide rate fell 32% in the year after Sheinbaum took office, according to government data.