The World Bank expects weak global growth in 2026

Today, the World Bank issued its forecasts for the growth of the global economy this year, expecting a weak growth of 2.6%, a number that it considers, however, an indication of the economy’s resilience in the face of trade tensions.
The bank, which is headquartered in Washington, raised its expectations, “especially for the United States of America.”
The bank’s chief economist, Indermeet Gill, confirmed during a telephone press conference, “The good news is that the global economy showed resilience (in 2025) amid political uncertainty and escalating trade tensions. We were more pessimistic at the beginning of the year, but we were wrong.”
Among the factors that contributed to supporting the economy last year, Gill pointed to “intensive stockpiling” by companies in anticipation of customs tariffs, especially in the United States of America, and “investors’ appetite for risk that is stronger than expected, and the sharp increase in investment spending on new technologies, especially artificial intelligence.”
But this relatively positive trend is offset by several points of concern to the World Bank, starting with the fact that “about a quarter of low-income countries have not yet returned to their economic level before the Covid-19 pandemic,” according to Indermeet Gill.
As a result, growth in developing economies is expected to slow in 2026, reaching 4% compared to 4.2% last year, while growth in low-income countries is expected to be higher, but it will not be enough to reduce the income gap with richer countries.
The second point is “a long-term trend towards a potential slowdown in global growth.” The chief economist at the World Bank explained this by noting that annual growth in per capita investment declined from 8% in the first decade of the second millennium to about 2.5% in the second decade.
“This concerns us because the long-term pattern is characterized by demographic decline and a continuing decline in private investment. We are currently seeing higher tariffs than in the past three or four decades, with non-tariff barriers being used as a trade policy tool,” he said.
The bank warned in its report that all of these factors may complicate the situation in low-income and developing countries, which face the need to create 1.2 billion jobs over the next ten years, in light of declining investment and general financial pressures.