Relations between the United States and South Korea have reached a breaking point

Few American experts in South Korea enjoy the same respect as the former US ambassador, James Laney, to Seoul.

Laney went to South Korea for the first time in 1947, as an army intelligence officer, and returned in 1959 as an ordinary person.

Two of his three daughters were born in this country, which was recovering from the devastating effects of the Korean War.

After serving as president of Emory University for 16 years, Laney served as U.S. ambassador to Seoul from 1993 to 1997, where he played an important role in defusing the North Korean nuclear crisis in 1994.

Yonsei University, one of the most prestigious universities in South Korea, includes a pavilion named after James Laney, in addition to a series of lectures in his name in which the most prominent experts in US-Korean relations participate.

So it was not just ordinary news when the 98-year-old former ambassador gave a frank assessment of the current state of the alliance between South Korea and the United States last month, while receiving the 2026 “Building Bridges” award from the Pacific Century Institute.

Washington control

In an event usually filled with buzzwords, Laney’s pre-recorded remarks offered a cold analysis that left the audience, which included former South Korean President Moon Jae-in, stunned: “The United States has unilaterally turned the bridge (the US-South Korea alliance) into a drawbridge, with checks only on the American side. Even when the bridge is lowered, the gates, that is, the tariffs, are controlled by Washington, and the entire building operates at the whims of the President of the United States.

He added: “It saddens me to say this.. Oh my God, I never imagined that I would have to say this, but I believe that Korea must begin to chart its future on its own terms. Of course, it will do so wisely and cautiously, but its interests no longer coincide with those of the White House.

“What this means for force command, independent nuclear capability, and relations with China will require exceptional political skill and ingenuity,” Laney continued. US President Donald Trump has made it unequivocally clear that the United States only cares about its own interests.”

Laney expressed what many Korea analysts were thinking but were afraid to say: “The alliance between the United States and South Korea is on the verge of collapse, and Washington is to blame.”

Because of the Trump administration’s actions, Seoul must reconsider the core pillars of the alliance, including the presence of US forces in South Korea, a nuclear umbrella rather than its own nuclear armament, and participation in US deterrence towards China.

Blatant violation

Many may disagree with the solution that Laney proposes, but his diagnosis is indisputable: Trump has shown no interest in the value of this alliance.

The 25% tariffs imposed by Trump on South Korean exports are a blatant violation of the 2007 free trade agreement between the United States and South Korea, as well as the negotiations that took place between the two countries in 2025 to set tariffs at 15%.

This latest agreement was coupled with Seoul’s pledge to invest up to $350 billion in American industries, but the Trump administration could not even accept this generous financial offer as it should.

In September 2025, US immigration authorities launched a violent raid on the Hyundai factory that was under construction in Georgia, and the South Korean public watched in shock as hundreds of South Korean engineers, most of whom held valid work visas, were restrained on live television.

Even Chosun Ilbo, South Korea’s leading conservative daily newspaper with a staunchly pro-American stance, wrote in an editorial that the raid was “unacceptable among allies” and raised fundamental questions about what the United States means by “alliance.”

Trump’s treatment may be the final blow, pushing the US-South Korea alliance to the point of no return.

Laney prepared his remarks before Trump started the war on Iran, but his warning proved to be an unusual prediction.

High cost

The Iran war has imposed a heavy cost on South Korea, as more than 70% of South Korea’s crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now under blockade.

The oil shortage in South Korea has reached such a serious extent that the government has limited the operation of state-owned vehicles and is considering imposing restrictions on driving cars, a strict measure that the country has not seen since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Petroleum by-products were also affected, and South Korea’s refineries began closing one after another, leading to a severe shortage of the raw material for all plastic products, including paints and plastic bags.

The same applies to helium, a by-product of liquefied natural gas and a key material for semiconductor manufacturing.

The stock market in South Korea was high thanks to the world’s leading semiconductor companies, but the possibility that about 90% of its helium imports from the Gulf region would not arrive caused the market to collapse.

Security guarantees

But the intangible cost of war may be more difficult. For the first time in its history as an independent country, South Korea truly doubts the ability of the United States to fulfill its security guarantees. What is the point of enduring the consequences of Chinese economic retaliation in order to deploy the THAAD system, in the name of preserving the alliance between the United States and South Korea, while the United States unilaterally withdraws THAAD to another corner of the world? For many South Koreans, the logical step seems to be what Laney advises: full control of the South Korean military, which the United States has The United States currently has joint operational control in times of war, develops nuclear weapons, and seeks better relations with China while downgrading the alliance with the United States to a commercial relationship.

From the US perspective, there is no good time to weaken the alliance, but this time could not be worse.

In a world where China is the United States’ number one geopolitical competitor, South Korea may be the United States’ most important ally.

Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, is the largest American military base abroad, and the closest to mainland China. About “Foreign Policy”

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Undo the current path

Washington has long assumed that Seoul could not afford to withdraw from their alliance, and should have wondered whether the United States could afford not to have South Korea as an ally.

Decoupling between the United States and South Korea is not a foregone conclusion, but to prevent this undesirable future, Washington must begin to fully reverse its current path of imposing economic sanctions on allies and military operations that disrupt global supply chains.

This complete retreat must come from all components of the US government, as Congress must exercise its oversight, and the judiciary must continue to declare the unilateral tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump illegal.

. For the first time in its history as an independent country, South Korea doubts the United States’ ability to fulfill its security guarantees.