Ukraine is between the hammer of Russian bombing and the “anvil” of giving up its territory

The difficult decision facing the Ukrainian government now lies in the fact that it is between the hammer of the continuing Russian bombing and the anvil of abandoning sovereign Ukrainian lands that are part of its cultural identity.

There are indications that Ukraine may be considering abandoning some areas now to become under Russian control, on the condition that it obtains strong security guarantees, in the event of a renewed Russian attack, but Ukraine is still seeking to preserve the remaining part of the “Donbass” region, which it has fortified with great care, or at least is trying to avoid recognizing it as a Russian region and abandoning it permanently.

Ukraine still controls between 10 and 15% of Donbass, in the Donetsk region, which sits atop a wealth of coal and includes heavy engineering factories.

Russian President Vladimir Putin considered controlling this last part of Donbass a prerequisite for peace talks, and two different proposals have been put forward so far: the first: turning the place into a demilitarized zone, and the second: calling for the establishment of a demilitarized free economic zone, and both sites will act as a buffer zone between the territories under Ukrainian control and the territories under Russian control.

But few details have been revealed about what these arrangements will look like, who will govern the region, monitor abuses, and who will reap the economic benefits.

“These ideas appear to have been written by the White House envoy, Steve Witkoff, but they do not provide any technical details,” said Michael Kaufman, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment. Demilitarized zones are a technically complex proposal, and much depends on the details.

According to the plan leaked from the administration of President Donald Trump, this last part of the industrial belt in the Donetsk region will be transformed into a demilitarized zone, the Ukrainian army will be evacuated from it, and it will be internationally recognized as part of Russia.

But Ukraine believes that this is an unfair request, as no one has asked Russia to withdraw its forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on December 14: “If the Ukrainian forces withdraw five or 10 kilometers, why does Russia not withdraw a similar distance?”

According to the Politico website, the idea of ​​converting the region into a free economic zone is likely to be a Ukrainian proposal, based on European advice. While the demilitarized zone may allow Russia to annex the region later, the free economic zone will theoretically enable Ukraine to continue owning investments and industries in the region, and its goal may also be to win over President Trump by providing profitable incentives to American companies.

But Zelensky said that the economic zone is an American proposal, and added: “The Americans are looking for some formula. They discussed the issue of the (free economic zone), and the Americans call it that name, while the Russians call it the (demilitarized zone).” Zelensky wondered whether Russia could one day be trusted to abide by the rules, and what will prevent them, the Russians, from disguising themselves as civilians and seizing this free economic zone?

In fact, there are very few agreements in history that could serve as a model for a possible buffer zone in Donbas.

Ukraine may accept actual Russian control over the lands already controlled by Russia, and agree to a buffer zone in the Donbass that is controlled by Ukraine, on the condition that it maintains its formal sovereignty over those areas, and the areas currently controlled by Russia.

But the Ukrainian government does not believe that formal territorial concessions are sufficient to achieve lasting peace, and Zelensky has also stated that a referendum is the only way to resolve the issue of territorial concessions.

Rafael Luce, political affairs researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said: “The Ukrainian position is that the 1991 borders remain the country’s borders, but it also realizes that it is not in a position to liberate those territories militarily, and so it is prepared to accept the effective control of a foreign power, but without any formal transfer of sovereignty.”

Some experts believe that, at the current pace, Russia will need much more time, effort and money to reclaim Ukraine-controlled Donbass. They dispute the Trump administration’s assumption that Ukraine is losing the war and should trade territory for peace. “If the Russians can easily seize this territory, why wouldn’t they?” Kofman says.

A demilitarized zone, or free economic zone, can only succeed if both parties are keen to end the conflict and prefer the benefits of peace over continued fighting.

At this point, it is clear that Russia believes it has the upper hand on the battlefield, especially because of Trump’s penchant for Putin.

It is also clear that Ukraine and its European allies do not believe that Ukraine will gain much from real peace by ceding more territory. About “Foreign Policy”

• The Ukrainian government does not believe that formal territorial concessions are sufficient to achieve lasting peace, and a referendum is the only way to resolve the issue of territorial concessions.

• In fact, there are very few agreements in history that could serve as a model for a possible buffer zone in Donbass.