Experts present a road map to avoid a new nuclear arms race

The international arena is witnessing a noticeable escalation in fears related to the possibility of the outbreak of a new nuclear arms race, following the end of the “New START” agreement between the United States and Russia, on February 5th. In light of this development, a number of experts are stressing the necessity of adopting a negotiating approach based on two parallel parts to address the issue of nuclear weapons and limit its dangerous repercussions.

The first part of this approach focuses on seeking to extend the New START agreement, despite the continuing sharp disagreements over the mechanism for achieving this. In this context, Ariel Petrovich, a professor at the American University of Maryland, believes that it is better for the United States to accept Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer to extend the agreement, and then work later to resume the exchange of data, activate the system of limited notifications, and establish a clear mechanism to restart mutual inspections.

Researchers at the Council on Foreign Relations of the United States, Erin Dambacher and John Drennan, confirm that accepting the Russian offer is in the interest of the United States, provided that Moscow agrees to enter into subsequent negotiations and at least partially return to the verification system stipulated in the New START Treaty, while reaffirming the commitment not to interfere in the implementation of its provisions.

The second part, which is no less important than the first, is that the United States seeks to launch simultaneous negotiations with China regarding nuclear arms control. The current level of the Chinese nuclear arsenal is seen as an appropriate standard to which America can reduce its nuclear stock. In the event that a common interest arises, even if it is unofficial, between Washington and Beijing to set a higher ceiling for nuclear possessions at the current Chinese level, this may impose international pressure on Russia to enter into a tripartite agreement that achieves a new nuclear balance at a lower level. Such a step is likely to receive broad international support, given the tangible progress it represents towards reducing the risks of nuclear confrontation and its disastrous effects.

Single standard

However, some experts warn that continued reliance on the New START agreement as the sole criterion may push decision-makers into a state of indifference towards the need for radical reductions in nuclear arsenals, which conflicts with the moral necessity of disarmament. Hence the question arises as to why serious work towards this goal has not begun now, before the available opportunity for an understanding with China is lost.

an opportunity

There are many reasons that call for a careful focus on these two aspects, separately and in parallel at the same time. Holding talks with China simultaneously with negotiations with Russia, but independently of them, would give the United States a better opportunity to understand Beijing’s intentions and strategic priorities, without complicating the discussions or distracting attention by involving Russia at an early stage. Even if these talks do not produce tangible results, they may pave the way for useful discussions to address the existing misunderstanding between China and the United States.

A researcher specializing in nuclear policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace concluded that careful discussion about the long-term consequences of each country’s policies, coupled with an accurate understanding of the other party’s point of view, is essential to avoid catastrophic results that may result from strategic mistakes and miscalculations.

talks

Another reason to focus on the two-pronged approach is the wavering Russian behavior during its negotiations regarding Ukraine, as Moscow showed contradictory signals. This requires the United States to be realistic about the chances of achieving a real breakthrough in the nuclear negotiations with Russia, especially in light of its intransigence and hesitation regarding the Ukrainian crisis. The history of these negotiations is likely to cast a shadow on the chances of reaching substantive nuclear agreements, at least as long as the war in Ukraine continues.

alliance

Third, the nature of the existing alliance between China and Russia, which takes multiple forms, adds another dimension of complexity. Although some researchers, including Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asian Relations Department at the Center for Defense Priorities, raise questions about the depth of this alliance, the United States cannot ignore concern about how it will develop. In the current transitional phase, great power alliances pose a threat to the fragile nuclear balance, which was fraught with risks even when limited to the relationship between America and Russia alone.

Strong motives

As for the fourth reason, it is that China has strong motives that may push it to be content with the level of its current nuclear arsenal. Goldstein points out that Chinese leaders have wisely reached the conviction that entering into a new Cold War, no matter how exaggerated it may seem in its portrayal, will constitute a direct threat to China’s prosperity and national security. The Chinese Communist Party has benefited over the past years from its supervision of continuous economic growth, but this momentum has begun to decline, which makes any huge spending on a costly nuclear arms race an additional burden. It may threaten his political legitimacy.

The high costs of building and maintaining a nuclear arsenal similar to those possessed by America and Russia are a major political and economic risk for China.

In this context, the researcher specializing in the Chinese economy, Diana Chuileva, from the Center for China Analysis of the Policy Institute of the Asia Society, points out that the Chinese leadership is no longer able to rely on industrial policies and investment alone to achieve the growth rates in production and income that are sufficient to ensure the continuation of its political legitimacy.

Other fields

In order to achieve tangible progress in the nuclear negotiations with China, it is necessary to show a willingness to cooperate in other specific areas, and among these areas is the possibility of easing customs duties as an incentive to advance the nuclear negotiations and reduce bilateral tensions. The field of participation in non-defense technologies also stands out as an additional opportunity to build confidence, including cooperation in nuclear fusion research as a future source of energy.

Recent reports indicate that China is making remarkable progress in this field, which was addressed in a study published in the magazine “Meet Technology Review,” entitled “Why are the United States and the European Union losing the nuclear fusion energy race.”

It seems logical to assume that nuclear fusion research will not remain limited to a specific country for a long time, which reduces the motives for non-cooperation, and the potential success of nuclear fusion projects in the long term may contribute to alleviating one of the sources of international tension, which is energy security, in addition to many other sources of tension. About “Aija Times”

Serious obstacles

The proposed approach to avoiding a new nuclear arms race is not without serious obstacles. The administration of US President Donald Trump has not shown clear indications of developing the institutional capabilities necessary to engage in the arduous effort required to achieve its repeatedly stated goal of reaching agreements to reduce nuclear weapons with both China and Russia. On the contrary, it has tended towards risking the resumption of controversial nuclear tests. In addition, the experience of the Strategic Defense Initiative known as “Star Wars”, which was launched during the era of former US President Ronald Reagan points out that proposals, such as Trump’s “Gold Dome” missile shield, may hinder rather than enhance negotiation opportunities.

Sergei Ploki, a professor of Ukrainian history at Harvard University, said that the former Soviet Union president, Mikhail Gorbachev, had previously offered to reduce nuclear weapons, and even get rid of the entire nuclear arsenal, in exchange for canceling the Strategic Defense Initiative, but President Reagan rejected that offer.

• To achieve progress in the nuclear negotiations with China, it is necessary to show a willingness to cooperate in other areas, including the possibility of easing customs duties.

• Experts confirmed that continued reliance on “New START” as the sole criterion may push decision makers into a state of indifference towards the need to reduce nuclear arsenals.