4 possible scenarios for the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine is waiting for US President Donald Trump’s decision like a wounded wrestler waiting for the referee’s signal, and although it is not broken yet, Ukraine, which is fighting ferociously, is certainly exhausted.

On the battlefield, the picture looks very bleak, as Russian forces seized six times more Ukrainian territory in 2024 than they did in 2023. In contrast, more than half of the territory captured by Ukraine in its surprise attack in the fall on « Kursk» Russian.

Meanwhile, multiple Russian attacks continue along the 1,000-kilometre front line, costing Ukraine more territory every day in the eastern Donbass region. The cities most threatened include the main Ukrainian logistics center in Pokrovsk.

The Ukrainian industry also received new and devastating blows. Outside of Pokrovsk, the huge Metinvest mine, the country’s only facility for producing coal, which is considered vital to the steel industry in Ukraine, became the scene of fierce fighting. It was closed and evacuated of workers 10 days ago after a bombing. The main columns in it to prevent Russian forces from using it to advance.

In addition to the huge number of Ukrainian forces killed and wounded, another 51,000 Ukrainians, most of them soldiers, are now missing. Outside the battlefield, more than 40,000 Ukrainian civilians were killed and wounded, more than 3.5 million Ukrainians were displaced within the country, and more than six million fled abroad.

However, a Ukrainian woman in the city of Kherson, where Russian drones are deployed, said last week: “I still wake up in the morning, exercise, shower, put on my makeup, put on my jewelry, and go to work.”

The Ukrainians feared Trump’s victory in the elections, as they doubted that the US president, who says he has a good relationship with President Vladimir Putin, could bring them joy, but three years of intermittent military support and an unclear strategy from former President Joe Biden, which brought the country… A sense of slow defeat allowed a “desperate hope” to flourish among Ukrainians that US President-elect Trump, who had been vocal in his intention to end the war, might end the conflict in a favorable manner.

Aside from improbable scenarios involving Putin’s untimely death or a sweeping Ukrainian counterattack, there are four realistic outcomes of war in which Putin believes Russia can withstand and defeat Ukraine despite Western support. Trump’s ability to break that belief will decide which of these… The four possible outcomes will become a reality.

A catastrophic defeat

The first scenario is the worst. If Russia chooses to go ahead with the war and avoid negotiations, if Ukraine loses American support, it may eventually break and be defeated militarily.

Aware of his desire to end the war quickly, and given his harsh criticism of Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, Trump will be wary of allowing this disastrous outcome to happen. If Ukraine is crushed, the consequences for global security will be much worse than the repercussions of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, and millions of Ukrainian refugees will flock to… Outside the country, thousands of those remaining will be imprisoned, and NATO, once proud of its expansion into Finland and Sweden, will end up with Russian westward expansion and Kremlin tanks. On the border of Poland.

Bad peace

The second scenario, which is almost worse than the first scenario, forces Ukraine, in the absence of a negotiated agreement or support from the United States, to surrender and be forced to file a lawsuit, with a weak position for a bad peace agreement that leads to the division of the country and the establishment of a “puppet” government in Kiev. This is considered a victory for Russia, and a clear defeat for Ukraine and its Western allies, and therefore Trump does not deserve the Nobel Peace Prize.

cease-fire

The third scenario includes a ceasefire, as part of a transitional phase that leads to a final settlement, a peace agreement, and a real end to the war. This may lead to regional stability and Ukraine remaining surrounded by security and economic guarantees.

Without a final settlement, those close to Trump clearly realize that a ceasefire in itself is not enough, as stopping the fighting alone will only freeze the war along the existing front lines, allowing the fighting to begin again in accordance with Russia’s interest. Ukraine and its Western allies are already aware of the failure of the previous ceasefire agreements, “Minsk 1” and “Minsk 2,” which failed to end the conflict in Donbass 10 years ago, and laid the foundation for the war that has been ongoing since 2022.

In an encouraging sign, the new US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, acknowledged the need to go beyond simply stopping the fighting, when he was interviewed by the American CBS network last week.

Negotiated settlement

The fourth scenario that the Ukrainians hope for includes the United States enabling Ukraine to participate in the peace talks from a position of strength, leading to an agreement that guarantees Ukraine a sovereign and economically viable future, with security guarantees that protect it from further Russian threats.

Since Russian territorial gains are unlikely to reverse at this stage of the conflict, “empowering Ukraine” would mean Trump imposing sanctions on Russia and committing to supporting Ukraine with weapons and money, if Russia chooses to either avoid peace negotiations or participate in them in bad faith.

Ukraine will be forced to make difficult concessions if the settlement scenario becomes real, as the occupied territories will be ceded, and the country is unlikely in the foreseeable future to see the return of its 1991 borders, and it may or may not witness the return of some of the lands it has lost to Russia since 2022.

At this critical moment in the war, Trump’s decision may determine Ukraine’s victory or loss, and its survival as well. About “The Times”

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Boost hopes

Despite Trump’s criticism of both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the US President’s post on social media last week, in which he threatened to impose sanctions on Russia, raised Ukrainians’ hopes.

“If we don’t make a deal, and soon, I will have no other choice but to impose high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything Russia sells to the United States,” Trump wrote on the Truth Social platform.

. Without a final settlement, those close to Trump clearly realize that a ceasefire in itself is not enough.