The G20 is at a “crossroads” under America’s presidency

On December 1, the United States assumed the rotating presidency of the G20, after Indonesia, India, Brazil, and South Africa, all countries of the Global South, took over the presidency of the group.

During the previous four presidencies, the group’s agenda and membership witnessed development, and the first full session of the group’s rotating presidency was completed. Since its meetings transformed from just a modest annual meeting of finance ministers to summits at the leadership level, in response to the global financial crisis that erupted in the fall of 2008, all of the group’s countries assumed its presidency at least once.

For the first time since 2009, the G20 presidency returns to the United States.

The G20 consists of Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, Britain and the United States.

In a joint analysis published on the Carnegie Institute for International Peace Research website, Gustavo Romero, a research fellow in the Institute’s World Order and Institutions Program and Director of the World Order and Institutions Program, Stuart Patrick, said, “The transfer of the G20 presidency to the United States will not be just a formality, but rather represents a fundamental shift from a broader, more comprehensive, and development-focused vision of the G20, to a narrower, more focused vision on national issues.”

The administration of US President Donald Trump has also expressed its desire for the group to return to a traditional approach, which will lead to a sharp reduction in much of what was accomplished during the past four years. This shift raises fundamental questions about the purpose, legitimacy and effectiveness of the G20, at a time when multilateral action itself is under increasing pressure.

This transformation represents an opportunity to evaluate the path of the G20 and its importance in global economic governance.

The past four years, under the leadership of countries from the Global South, have constituted a distinctive stage in the development of the G20. Never before have two emerging economies assumed the presidency of the group, and this continuity has been of great importance.

In addition, these presidencies were characterized by remarkable consensus among themselves, which provided a degree of continuity for the group’s work, especially since the summits held in (Bali, New Delhi, Rio de Janeiro, and Johannesburg) shared many issues.

The first of these issues was the relentless pursuit of greater inclusion and representation. India’s presidency of the group in 2023 represented a decisive turning point, as it secured permanent membership of the African Union, which significantly expanded the scope of its representation, and raised its representation in the world from 65% to 80% of the world’s gross domestic product.

By the South African presidency in 2025, the organization had 22 working groups, three task forces, and 13 groups on issues such as labor and science.

The second topic was the debt crisis and reform of the international financial system. During their presidency of the group, Indonesia and India stressed the need to strengthen multilateral development banks and accelerate progress towards achieving sustainable development goals.

While Brazil gave priority to reforming international financial institutions, South Africa also raised the profile of the issue of sovereign debt restructuring and development financing, emphasizing the inadequacy of current mechanisms and the danger of opaque and protracted debt settlement mechanisms to the financial and economic stability of countries of the Global South in particular.

During their presidency, the four southern countries also highlighted the issue of climate change, as a development challenge and not an isolated environmental issue.

Finally, these presidencies contributed to including the issues of inequality, social protection, and hunger within the G20 deliberations.

With America assuming the presidency of the group at the beginning of this month, the Trump administration has already indicated that its presidency will adopt an agenda more focused on economic growth, deregulation, energy security, and technology, which will inevitably reduce the work of the G20 in areas including climate, confronting inequality, and development.

Although scaling back the G20’s broad agenda is not necessarily a mistake, because it emerged as a limited forum and expansion has damaged its cohesion, the degree and method of scaling down are of critical importance.

At the same time, a repeat of the era of the United States’ separation from the group’s work on some issues, as happened during Trump’s first term, would be the ideal scenario for the G20 in 2026.

However, this scenario seems unlikely, as the United States assumes the presidency of the group this year, and instead of abiding by the preferences of other governments, the US administration will have the freedom to impose its vision and determine its directions. The most likely outcome is that 2026 will be a turbulent year for the G20, characterized by expedient diplomacy, repeated threats to impose tariffs, and a disregard for the continuity of diplomatic institutions or norms.