Controversial expert: The world is facing a “demographic winter”

Contrary to the common image of a world suffocating due to overpopulation, demographer and writer Paul Moreland believes that the truth is moving in a completely different direction: the world is not experiencing a population explosion, but rather is moving at an accelerating pace towards aging and population shrinkage, a phenomenon that carries with it profound economic and social challenges that may be much more dangerous than we imagine, indicating that our world is facing a “demographic winter.”

In a speech during the World Government Summit, Moreland said that humanity, despite the global population today reaching about 8 billion people, is experiencing its best conditions in history. Modern humans live longer, are better nourished, have access to safer water, live in better housing, and enjoy higher levels of education than in all previous periods of history. Most importantly, every population jump is accompanied by an improvement in the standard of living, not a decline as some believe.

Moreland explained this paradox by what the late American economist Julian Simon described as the “ultimate resource”: the human mind. The more people there are, the more they are able to innovate and come up with smarter solutions to use limited resources more efficiently. According to Moreland, population growth has never been a cause of poverty, but rather has often been a driver of progress.

But the biggest irony, he points out, is that this same growth is now slowing sharply.

End of population growth
Moreland emphasized that the number of children born annually in the world declines year after year, and that the growth rate of the world population is constantly declining. The number of countries in which fertility rates have fallen below the population replacement level (i.e. less than two children per woman) is increasing annually, while countries record more deaths than births.

He explained that, based on the latest forecasts, the world’s population is likely to reach its peak much sooner than previously expected. He added, “We are not facing a world that is deteriorating due to the abundance of people, nor are we facing a real population explosion, but rather we are facing a world that is aging.”

Dark face

Moreland warned against the widespread belief that population decline is necessarily a positive thing. In reality, population shrinkage does not mean prosperity, but rather often leads to what he describes as “humanitarian shrinkage.”

He explained that when population numbers decline, schools begin to close, then villages begin to disappear, until the last resident dies. Investments in infrastructure become ineffective, roads collapse, airports close, and basic services withdraw. The result is not a higher quality of life, but rather communities that gradually wither away.

A global phenomenon
Morland emphasized that low fertility was no longer a “Western” or white European problem as previously thought. Countries such as Colombia are now recording fertility rates close to Canada’s, and Jamaica is approaching Japan’s levels, while the fertility of the Philippines, which was considered a highly reproductive country, has declined to levels that barely exceed France’s.

He said, “This phenomenon has become absolutely global.”

Early warning

South Korea represents the most extreme example of what happens when the fertility rate collapses, Moreland said. Each generation consisting of 100 people only gives birth to about 40 in the next generation, and then only 16 in the next generation, which means a population decline of 84% within just two generations, that is, within 50 to 60 years.

He added: As for Japan, although its fertility is not as low as Korea, it has been suffering from the problem for a longer period. Explaining that the problem does not lie in the total population, but rather in the age structure. In the 1960s, Japan had nine working-age people for every retiree. In the coming decades, one worker will support almost one retiree.

“The Gray Four”
To describe the consequences of population aging, Moreland introduces what he calls the “Grey Four,” explaining that the “gray business” is the shrinkage of the workforce year after year that leads to chronic economic stagnation, especially in light of slowing productivity growth, and a decline in entrepreneurship and innovation as workers age.

He added that “gray capital” is concentrated in the hands of elderly people looking for safe investments, which makes it difficult for young entrepreneurs to finance their ideas, and weakens the dynamism of the economy.

As for the gray consumer, Norland emphasized that elderly societies consume services that depend on direct human labor, such as health and social care, at a time when the number of workers able to provide these services is declining, which is a gap that technology or artificial intelligence cannot fill in the near future.

As for the gray budget, he explained that as the taxpayer base shrinks and spending on health and pensions increases, public debt levels rise, as is the case in countries such as Japan and Italy, which puts governments in front of serious financial risks.

Temporary solution
Moreland stated that relying on immigration to solve the aging population crisis is only a temporary solution. Migrants, in turn, are aging, and their birth rates are declining over time, which turns the matter into something similar to a “pyramid scheme” that requires the importation of ever-increasing numbers, which is not sustainable globally.

Moreland asked a striking question: “Is it right for rich countries to rely on depleting the staff of poorer countries, to the point that Britain now has more health workers coming from Ghana than within Ghana itself?”