Ministers’ Information reviews the most prominent indicators of the future of electricity in the Middle East and North Africa
A rapid increase over the past decades and a tripling in electricity consumption during the first quarter of the current century
The Information and Decision Support Center of the Council of Ministers highlighted the report issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA), entitled “The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa,” which addressed The rapid growth in electricity consumption in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by a rising population and growing needs for cooling and water desalination, with a gradual shift in the energy mix away from oil towards natural gas, solar and nuclear energy, in addition to the need to modernize networks and improve energy efficiency to ensure security of supply and reduce future economic losses.
He explained. The report states that electricity consumption in the Middle East and North Africa region has increased rapidly over the past decades, and this trend is expected to continue strongly in the coming years. The region has seen electricity consumption triple between 2000 and 2024, driven by increasing population and improving income levels, with expectations of an additional increase of 50% by 2035. It is characterized by extreme heat and scarcity of water. Other factors such as accelerated urban growth, industrial expansion, reliance on electric transportation, and the development of digital infrastructure also contribute to increasing rates of demand for electricity.
The report stated that oil and natural gas dominate more than 90% of the electricity generation mix in the region, but many countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, are moving to reduce their dependence on oil in power stations, with the aim of directing it towards… Uses of higher economic value or for export, which represents a fundamental shift in energy policies.
According to estimates, natural gas will cover half of the expected growth in electricity demand until 2035, reducing the share of oil from the current 20% to only 5% of total generation.
In contrast, solar photovoltaic energy will witness a huge increase equivalent to ten fold, raising the contribution of renewable energy to about a quarter of the total generation, and nuclear energy will triple, which will significantly change the features of the energy mix.
The report indicated that the region will witness a significant expansion in its generating capacity exceeding 300 gigawatts during the next decade, and this increase is among the largest in the world, placing the region in third place in terms of growth in electricity consumption since At the turn of the century, after China and India, which reflects its weight in the global energy equation.
As for investments, the volume of spending on the electricity sector in the region reached about $44 billion in 2024, and it is expected to rise by an additional 50% by 2035. Nearly 40% of these investments will be directed to developing electricity networks and reducing transmission and distribution losses, which are currently double the global average, which is This makes modernizing networks and regional connectivity between countries a top priority to ensure security of supplies.
The report stressed the importance of improving energy efficiency to meet increasing demand, as the efficiency of air conditioning devices in the region is less than half of their counterparts in Japan. If its efficiency is improved, this alone can reduce the growth of peak electricity demand by an amount equivalent to the entire production capacity of the electricity sector in Iraq today, which highlights the role of efficiency in consumption management.
The report also warned at its conclusion of an alternative scenario if the diversification of the energy mix is delayed beyond the targeted levels, as this will lead to an increase in the demand for oil and gas to generate electricity by more than a quarter by more than a quarter by 2035, with expected losses in export revenues amounting to $80 billion, and an increase in import bills estimated at $20 billion, which highlights the economic risks resulting from the slow energy transition.
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