After Congo’s qualification…the UAE or Iraq’s journey to the global playoff

The journey to qualify for the global qualifier for the 2026 World Cup is witnessing a delicate stage with half the required number completed, as three teams have so far secured their presence in this path: Congo, Bolivia and New Caledonia, while nine other teams are competing for the remaining four seats.

The teams participating in the playoff are classified according to their ranking in the FIFA classification, with the four lowest-ranked teams competing in semi-final matches determined by the lottery system, while the two highest-ranked teams qualify directly to the final match. The winner of both finals qualifies for the World Cup finals.

The teams that have qualified so far have come from three different continents, as Congo has clinched its seat after settling in a position that places it between the 56th and 57th rankings, and Bolivia has also secured its qualification and is in 76th place, in addition to New Caledonia, which occupies a late position on the global list with number 149.

The calculations for the next stage have become more complex as the Iraqi and UAE teams are close to clinching the Asian playoff spot, which is an almost certain confrontation given their ranking in the classification, as Iraq is in a position similar to Congo, while the UAE team is ranked 64th.

Although the identity of the Asian representative has become almost settled, this team’s path to the final remains dependent on the results of another continent, which is the North American Federation.

Direct qualification to the final for Iraq or the UAE depends on the status of the Panama and Costa Rica teams in the final round of qualifiers, as their direct qualification to the World Cup without the need for a playoff will be a positive factor for the Arab teams. In this case, the Asian representative will not have to compete in the semi-finals and will qualify directly to the final, which gives him a great sporting and psychological advantage.

The most difficult scenario is for Panama or Costa Rica to go to the global playoff. This situation means that one of them will occupy a place in the semi-final match, and thus the Asian representative will have to play an additional match before reaching the final.

Observers believe that facing a team from North America in the semi-finals may be more complex from a tactical standpoint, especially since the teams coming from that region have long experience in playoff matches and their own calculations.

Expectations indicate that the results of the last round in the Panama and Costa Rica group will directly determine the shape of the Asian qualification path, as attention turns to the details of the standings and the points of the two teams before the decisive match.