Europe faces existential risks in 2026 with the weakness of Germany, France and Britain

It’s 2026 and Europe is under siege. External pressure from Russia is mounting in Ukraine, China is undermining the EU’s industrial base, and the United States is now threatening to annex the territory of a NATO ally, undermining the EU’s multilateral rules, which look increasingly outdated. In a world that is more self-serving and less cooperative, none of this seems likely to change.

In fact, the continuing erosion of the standards on which Europe has become dependent will be exacerbated by the bloc’s weak leadership, especially in the so-called “E3” countries, namely Germany, France, and Britain.

Looking to the future, Europe’s greatest existential risks will stem from the transatlantic relationship.

For EU leaders, maintaining US cooperation in the war in Ukraine was the main goal for 2025.

The best possible outcome for 2026 will be a continuation of the extraordinary diplomacy that has characterized the past 12 months.

However, if new threats emerge in this relationship, particularly regarding Greenland, this balance may be impossible.

Resistance to pressures

The year 2026 also began with no sign of Russia making concessions on its ceasefire demands, or any willingness to accept the terms of the US-EU-Ukraine 20-point plan.

This is because Russian President, Vladimir Putin, believes that Ukraine’s military situation will further deteriorate, which will force Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, to surrender to Russia’s demands.

Observers believe that Putin is wrong. With Europe’s support, Zelensky will continue to resist US pressure on territorial concessions. Instead, he will increasingly target Russian energy production and exports, in addition to resistance along the front line.

Of course, this means that Russian air attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure will also increase.

However, Europe’s increased military spending, US arms purchases, funding for Kiev, and sanctions against Russia that also target sources of energy revenues could help maintain the status quo, but this is probably a best-case scenario.

Ballot boxes

At the same time, European leaders will be forced to ignore Washington’s support for far-right parties, outlined in the new US National Security Strategy, while secretly doing everything they can to counter any anti-establishment backlash at the ballot box.

Specifically, the upcoming elections in Hungary will be an indicator of whether the Make America Great Again movement can sway its ideological allies in Europe, where populist and Eurosceptic Prime Minister Viktor Orbán appears poised to lose for the first time in 15 years.

For his part, Orban is campaigning feverishly to shore up voter support, suggesting that his inner circle already sees defeat as a possibility.

His rival, Peter Magyar, who shares his conservative and nationalist political origins, but has not been suspected of corruption, poses a real challenge, as does the stagnant economy and high prices in the country.

While traditional electoral strategies, such as handouts, smear campaigns, and war scaremongering, have proven ineffective for Orban so far, any military fallout from Ukraine that directly impacts Hungary could reignite voter fears and turn things around.

Risk of paralysis

Moreover, these challenges will be exacerbated by the weakness of the “E3” countries, and the erosion of the European political center may continue for a decade, but France, Germany, and Britain each entered the year 2026 with weak and unpopular governments, besieged by the populist right and left, as well as an American administration that hopes for its collapse.

While none of them faces scheduled general elections, all three countries are at risk of paralysis at best, and destabilization at worst.

At least one leader, Keir Starmer in Britain, may fall due to internal rebellion in his party.

The pivotal event of this year in the United Kingdom will be the midterm elections next May. In the current situation, the Labor Party is facing difficulties, as it came in third place in the Welsh Parliament, failed to oust the Scottish National Party in the Scottish Parliament, and lost seats to both the Green Party and the British Reform Party in the English local elections.

Labor MPs are already anticipating a real challenge to Starmer as party leader, and his chances of survival appear slim.

Reducing the deficit

Meanwhile, France entered 2026 without a budget for the second year in a row. The good news for President Emmanuel Macron is that the minority government led by Prime Minister Sebastien Lokono will likely reach a budget deal aimed at modestly reducing the deficit by late February or March.

With the presidential elections approaching in 16 months and local elections taking place next March, the opposition’s desire to hold early parliamentary elections has diminished.

However, this is the best he can hope for, as the divided National Assembly will maintain an atmosphere of slow crisis until the 2027 elections.

Structural problems

Finally, although the German economy looks set to rebound slightly in 2026, it will not overcome its structural problems.

The government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, largely consumed by ideological divisions, will face difficulties in implementing far-reaching reforms.

With the far-right Alternative for Germany party’s vote share expected to increase in the next five state-level elections, the pressure on the government in Berlin will increase.

In 2026, a historical truth often forgotten in quiet times will be confirmed: that freedom, stability, prosperity and peace in Europe are always fragile. About “Politico”

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Competitiveness

It appears that the period of respite provided by American protection of Europe, and exceptional cooperation and integration after World War II, has officially ended.

From now on, Europe’s importance in the new world order will be determined by its response to Russia’s increasing hybrid aggression, its influence in diplomacy in relation to the Ukraine war, and its ability to improve its competitiveness, while managing the rise of the growing far right and addressing the existential threats to its economy and security posed by Russia, China and the United States. This is what will determine whether Europe can survive or not.

. Germany, France and Britain are at risk of paralysis at best, and destabilization at worst.

. Europe is besieged by escalating Russian pressure in Ukraine, China’s undermining of its industrial base, and Washington’s threat to annex territory of NATO allies.