32 million people in the world may be pushed into poverty due to escalation in the Middle East

The program explained in its latest policy brief published on Monday that while the impacts are concentrated in countries directly affected by the conflict and those that depend on energy imports, the results of the brief indicate serious and long-term damage that may befall poor countries far from the battlefields.

The summary titled “Military Escalation in the Middle East: Setbacks in Global Development and Policy Response Options”He reported that as the crisis enters its sixth week – and despite the announcement of a ceasefire – its effects are shifting from an “acute” phase to a “continuous” phase.

The policy brief revealed that the longer this phase lasts, the greater the risk of accelerating the slide into poverty in fragile countries, adding that under the worst-case scenario, an additional 32 million people may slide into poverty.

He also warned that countries located in the Gulf region, Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and small island developing states are exceptionally vulnerable groups.

Impossible choices

Alexander De Croo, Director of the United Nations Development Programme, said this new briefing shows “The shock of the escalation of conflict in the Middle East is not limited only to the countries directly affected by it, but also falls disproportionately on countries that lack sufficient fiscal space to absorb the rise in energy and food prices.”.

He added that for those countries, the crisis imposes impossible trade-offs between working to stabilize prices today, and financing the health and education sectors and providing job opportunities tomorrow, stressing that “This is unacceptable and avoidable; early policy action is essential.”.

Suggested solutions

The program presented a set of policy options that countries could adopt to help mitigate the repercussions of conflict under each of the expected scenarios, including:

🔹 Policymakers should consider providing temporary, targeted cash transfers to protect poor and vulnerable families as a first line of defense. Depending on the scenario, the value of cash transfers needed for this measure to be effective could reach US$6 billion.

🔹 Providing temporary subsidies or vouchers directed at consuming specific quantities of electricity or cooking gas. The report warns that blanket energy subsidies – common in developing economies – disproportionately favor the wealthiest households at the expense of the neediest, and are not financially sustainable in the long term.