The war in the Middle East threatens 32 million people with poverty

The United Nations Development Program warned that the war in the Middle East that broke out late last February could lead about 32 million people in 162 countries to slide into poverty, if its global economic repercussions continue, according to a report issued today, Monday.

The report explained that the most severe impacts are concentrated in countries directly affected by the conflict or close to it, but the long-term repercussions are likely to spread to broader regions, including the Gulf states, Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and small island states.

The program indicated that despite the announcement of a ceasefire, the six-week war moved from an “acute” phase to a “prolonged” phase, which increases the risk of worsening poverty the longer it continues.

UNDP Director Alexander De Croo said that the escalation of conflicts disproportionately affects countries with limited resources, which lack the ability to absorb shocks from rising energy and food prices.

He added that these countries face a difficult choice between containing inflation or financing basic services such as health care, education, and job opportunities.

To limit these repercussions, the report recommended providing temporary, targeted cash transfers to protect the most vulnerable groups, indicating that the cost of these measures could reach about $6 billion, depending on the different scenarios.

On the other hand, the program warned against relying on energy subsidies on a large scale, considering that it benefits the wealthiest segments and is not a sustainable option in the long term.

The analysis was based on the models of the Global Trade Analysis Project, as it assessed the repercussions of multiple conflict scenarios, ranging from short-term disturbances to extended shocks that could last up to eight months.